Nigeria is no stranger to political coalitions. If anything, coalition politics is merely a recurring theme in our national political experience. The question is, how will the ADC’s ongoing “marriage of inconvenience” survive Tinubu’s gegenpolitics and replicate APC’s 2015 coalition victory?
Political coalitions, throughout history, succeed on one major ground: when the collective willingness (of the individual actors) to dethrone the status quo takes precedence over individual ambitions or interests. In his seminal work on the “Theory of Political Coalitions,” William Riker posited that political coalitions are united not by any shared vision, but by their opposition to the status quo.
Replicating APC’s 2015 victory is going to be a tall order for the new ADC coalition. The current ADC coalition differs from the APC 2015 coalition in fundamentally different ways.
In the case of 2014/15, there was a clear consensus on a Buhari ticket (despite Atiku’s late attempt at disruption), there was a near national and international consensus against Jonathan, and there was a palpable doubt even within Jonathan’s own camp about his ability to hold onto power or navigate any post-election crisis that may arise. Lack of public and international support, internal political wrangling, coupled with lack of political self-confidence sealed the fate of the Jonathan administration.
The above factors no longer hold true in Tinubu’s case today.
Granted that the Tinubu administration is largely unpopular, there’s little domestic enthusiasm nor international appetite fo regime change in Nigeria. It is as if Buhari’s underwhelming regime had numbed Nigerians into a state of political apathy, resigned to their fate of elect-and-regret, where each new regime turns out to be worse than its predecessor.
More so, the opposition appear to be more motivated by their own individual ambitions than the shared goal of defeating Tinubu. You hear talks like it is Peter Obi or nothing, or it is either Atiku with Obi as VP or four more years of Tinubu. That, surely, is not a way to go about building a political coalition.
I hope this doesn’t come across as discouraging for the Nigerian opposition. It is my firm belief that a strong opposition is crucial to checkmating the excesses of parties and individuals in power. It is the failure of the opposition that enabled some of the worst excesses of the Tinubu administration like the illegal suspension of democratic order in Rivers State.
The opposition must get its acts together. Coalition is not achieved through threats or blackmails. In fact, such actions breed distrust and send the signal that parties to the coalition may not honor their words after victory. Don’t get me wrong, every coalition faces some doubts and distrust, but as William Riker said: “every coalition carries the seed of its own distraction, the trick is in delaying collapse until after victory.”
In 2014, I wrote an article titled “Tinubu’s Last Dance,” arguing how Tinubu’s own political protégés are plotting his own political obituary. It was a time when Tinubu mentees like Osinbajo and Fayemi were jostling for the APC ticket in direct challenge on their political mentor.
There, I argued that if Tinubu failed to clinch the APC ticket, he may be forced to make a choice between dignified political retirement or humiliation, as any political misstep may consign him to the wrong side of our political reality. Tinubu survived that because a politically disinterested Buhari and an internal APC power play allowed him to impose his own rules, against the run of play.
Though the circumstances are different, the same decision is facing Atiku Abubakar today, as the most prominent member and the leading face of the coalition. At 78, and would be 80 in 2027, this is Atiku’s last dance. And for the coalition to work, Atiku must decide what he values more, clinching the coalition ticket or defeating the incumbent?
Atiku’s age, and legacy reputational issues, will not resonate with young voters. Besides, the optics of a northerner challenging what is considered a southern presidential turn does not look good for Nigeria’s turn-by-turn politics. No matter how legitimate, such move will expose the north to charges of political monopoly and insensitivity.
In fact, it is safer for the north to wait for Tinubu to finish his eight years than to risk getting involved in a perilous political adventure. That move could only unite the south, exacerbate north-south divide, and undermine the historic north-southwest alliance that propelled Buhari to the presidency after three failed attempts.
After all, the elite dissatisfaction with President Tinubu has little to do with the economic hardship Nigerians are going through and more to do with their loss of access to power, especially among former Buhari appointees whose hands were muddled in all the major scandals of the Buhari presidency.
Atiku no doubt has the right to contest, irrespective of any written or perceived north-south arrangement. But given current political realities, his candidacy is doomed to fail, like in previous cases. To borrow from Elon Musk, it is time Atiku “hang up his hat and sail into the sunset.”
In his place, the coalition can field a vibrant southern candidate like Peter Obi or Jonathan, allowing two same region candidates (Obi or GEJ v. Tinubu) to slug it out like Buhari v. Atiku in 2019. If it succeeds, Atiku could still earn his place in history as the opposition leader who spearheads such change. If it fails, he won’t be blamed for lack of sacrifice.
Because for any coalition to succeed, they must get the right candidate (one that energizes young voters), the right messaging (that turns Tinubu’s mistakes into slogans and go beyond just grabbing power), the right resources (to anticipate and neutralize the incumbent’s dirty tricks), and the right set of partners locally and internationally who are willing to go the whole length either out of shared vision or shared interests.
In simple terms, they must create a coalition of the willing, not the unwilling.
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